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Help Use the orange and grey slider above the map to watch the weekly spread of infection. Below the red R is R naught, the number of other people an infected person is likely to infect. Below the graph, find many options for how to view the data behind what is happening as the disease spreads.

Custom City thumbnail image
Custom City
flu thumbnail image
Flu

Flu Outbreak in Custom City

R iconR: 1.4
“R naught” Someone who is infected will likely infect this many other people.
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Play Simulation
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Stop Simulation
When you play your simulation, it will show that you prevented so many infections, hospitalizations, and deaths that no icons remain on the map other than the initial infected. Review the legend to learn how many people were affected by this outbreak.
When you play through your simulation, you may notice there are no death icons on the map. The pathogen you chose can make people very sick, but has a low death rate, which may be part of why very few people died. To understand the effect of this pathogen, focus more on the number of infected.
When you play your simulation, it will show that you prevented so many infections and deaths that no icons remain on the map other than the initial infected. Review the legend to learn how many people were affected by this outbreak.
When you play through your simulation, you may notice there are no death icons on the map. The pathogen you chose can make people very sick, but has a low death rate, which may be part of why very few people died. To understand the effect of this pathogen, focus more on the number of infected.
When you play your simulation, it will show that you prevented so many infections and cases of paralysis that no icons remain on the map other than the initial infected. Review the legend to learn how many people were affected by this outbreak.
Key
=
1 Initial Infected
=
1000 Infected
=
1000 Dead
Custom City map
Population Breakdown, Day 0
Starting Population: 12,500,001
Vaccinated 0%
0 people
Infected 0%
1 person
Recovered 0%
0 people
Dead 0%
0 people
Uninfected 100%
12,500,000 people
Want to save more lives? Save your simulation for comparison, then click on Run Again With Vaccinations to see how many people you could save by vaccinating. You can also click on Change Safety Measures and Run Again to see how many people you could save by increasing use of masks and distancing.
Save your simulation for comparison, then run another simulation.
Try Another Simulation

Numbers are rounded. If the number of people in a group isn’t more than 0.005% of the population, that group will be listed as 0%.

*Only susceptible people can be vaccinated. Those who are exposed, infected, recovered, or dead cannot be vaccinated.
Total people vaccinated can decrease over time, as sometimes immunity is lost after vaccination. This is not due to deaths. In the United States, tens of millions of people have received a COVID-19 vaccine and no one has died due to the vaccine.

**Exposed people include those in the incubation period before they are infectious.

Compare Outbreaks

Compare Outbreaks

You have no results saved for comparison.

Graph

Population Outcome Graph

Click inside the graph to move the dotted line (on the right side of the graph) and see the values for a specific day below.

0
70
140
210
280
350
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Time (days)
Percentage
Day 364
Starting Population: 12,500,001
Total Vaccinated 0%
0 people
Total Dead 0%
0 people
Total Recovered 0.05%
6,674 people
Total Exposed 0.07%
9,357 people
Total Infected 0.06%
7,696 people
Vaccine Herd Immunity Threshold
(none)

When the number of people who are vaccinated is higher than the herd immunity line (threshold), the population is protected by vaccine-induced herd immunity.

Unfortunately, for this level of vaccination coverage, this population will never reach vaccine-induced herd immunity.
Safety Measures Implemented

Safety Measures Implemented

Your population is not using masks.

Your population is not distancing.

No one in your population was vaccinated.

Pathogen Summary

Flu

Influenza, or "the flu," is caused by a variety of related viruses that can spread through the air or by touching your eyes, nose, or mouth after contacting an infected surface. Symptoms of the flu include fever, cough, congestion, runny nose, sore throat, body aches, and tiredness. In some cases, infection can lead to pneumonia, sinus infections, and breathing issues. Simple precautions such as distancing and wearing masks are highly effective in preventing the spread of this pathogen.

flu thumbnail image
Population Impact of Flu
  • The number of people an infected person is likely to infect (Base R naught): 1.4
  • Daily death rate: 0%
  • Daily recovery rate: 14.29%
Table Data

Table Data

Starting Population: 12,500,001

Display: Weeks | Months
Per day numbers for:
D = Dead
R = Recovered
DayIRD
0100
7110
14210
21220
28230
35230
42340
49360
56470
63480
705100
776120
847140
918170
989200
10511240
11212280
11914330
12617390
13319460
14022530
14726620
15430730
16135850
16841990
175471150
182551350
189641570
196741820
203862120
2101002470
2171162870
2241343340
2311563880
2381814510
2452115240
2522456090
2592847070
2663308210
2733839540
2804451,1090
2875161,2880
2946001,4960
3016961,7370
3088082,0180
3159392,3430
3221,0902,7220
3291,2663,1610
3361,4693,6710
3431,7064,2620
3501,9814,9500
3572,2995,7480
3642,6696,6740